The University of Manchester has secured funding to manage a 12-month research project, prioritising how we can improve our understanding of the energy yield delivered from offshore wind in the UK.

The Prediction Of Unqualified Losses from Offshore Wind Farm wakes (POUNDS) project intends to deliver a national-scale assessment of the interactions between offshore wind farms, supporting industry and policy leaders with strengthening offshore wind production in the transition to net zero. 

The project is a collaboration between UK Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) institutes, industry experts and policy leaders, including ORE Catapult, ARUP, EDF, RWE and the Crown Estate. 

The UK Government has proposed a target of 43GW offshore wind by 2030. Significant progress has already happened, with 16 GW now in operation, and additional projects are within the development phase in the recent Contract for Difference Allocations. Despite the progress, securing the 2030 target will require a three-fold increase in capacity, potentially achieving over 100 GW installed capacity by 2050.

This expansion of offshore wind farms means they must develop closer together, making it critical to determine how this impacts the predictions of annual energy production.

The study suggests that wakes have been observed reaching beyond 65 kilometres and can increasingly impact the performance of other wind farms, reducing turbine efficiency in delivering energy and creating conflicts between wind farm operators.

The POUNDS project aims to investigate the impact of offshore wind farms on the energy production and revenue of other sites and identify the best locations for future offshore wind sites to reduce these losses and support national renewable energy targets. The study will also validate modelled performance data against operational data and enhance the accuracy of wind farm energy production forecasting.

POUNDS will apply mesoscale models, which involve a type of sophisticated numerical weather forecasting model, to map out the performance of wind farms across the UK at a resolution of one kilometre. The study will explore the operational offshore wind farms in 2023 and the thousands of additional turbines planned by 2030. The study will assess model accuracy relative to real-time data and determine the effects of inter-farm wakes on predicted energy yields. It will also explore wind farm wakes and wind farm performance, compared to energy export grid data. 

By examining the interactions between wind farms at a deeper level, the research team hopes to deliver better guidance for developers and policymakers, reduce investment risks and eliminate conflicts between wind farm operators.

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